UCF +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
I don't know who drove this line up to 3.5 points, but I'm thanking them for it. Essentially both teams come off a bye week here and should be fresh for their conference game. Although UCF may have a bit more time to prepare here considering they had Bethune Cookman on 9/20. Either way I expect a competitive game between two teams who are solid on defense and struggling to find an identity on offense, but I think UCF is still the better team with the better coach. UCF is ranked higher in our power rankings 77th to 84th, and strength of schedule 32nd vs. 71st.
Houston's wins have come when they can run the ball and despite only doing that roughly 38% of the time. However, they ran the ball against two poor teams in Grambling and UNLV. Against BYU and UTSA they ran for a combined -17 yards. UCF is giving up 2.9 ypc and they have played big opponents like Missouri and Penn State. They have an excellent group of linebackers led by Terrance Plummer who has been in the media this week responding to Houston's WR's comments. Plummer is a great leader who plays with emotion and passion and that's the type of team I like to back as an under dog. Houston's WR Deontay Greenberry is a good player, but he made a dumb comment stating "they weren't that good last year....don't expect a close game this year." I have no idea why he feels that way when you consider how Houston has played this year against competitive opponents, but UCF HC George O'Leary state "one of my players said that he'd be watching the game on TV." It just goes to show you where both teams are. UCF is clearly more mature and has a better coach and the stats back it up.
Houston passes 61.5% of hte time and they are not very good at ranked 114th in pass efficiency. We broke down the struggles with the running game so for me the game for Houston relies on O'Korn. He was supposed to make a big step forward in his second year and he hasn't completing just 52% of his passes while throwing 6 interceptions and 6 TD's. I don't see that changing here against UCF which has a seasoned secondary. Missouri's Matty Mauk only had 144 yards passing on them on 14/24 and he had the running game working to create balance. Don't expect O'Korn to have the same advantages here tonight.
Central Florida's defense will keep them in the game while the offense I think will gain it's confidence for the first time this season against a decent opponent. UCF is ranked nearly dead last in ypc but they have faced some very good defenses including Penn State ranked 3rd v.s the run. Houston's defense just gave up 5 rushing TD's and 500 yards in their last 2 games combined against BYU and UNLV. I can see BYU rushing well, but UNLV is ranked 90th in yards per rush and they put up 4.36 average and 170 yards. UCF has the threat of their QB taking off and I think he will take a few plays out of BYU's play book for some key first downs.
I would feel comfortable taking UCF on the money line if you have to.. This team could easily be 2-1, but their defense has struggled on third down defense, but playing Houston should help as they have only been able to convert 33% of their third downs and we mentioned all the struggles they have had running and throwing the ball.
